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Is there a storm ahead?

The UK has experienced its first storm on its shores recently but is this an indication that there is more to come and some which are brewing to impact the economy?

There have been some significant contributing factors and there are more to come in the staffing industry that could have profound affects on both the economy and the future jobs market.

We are all aware of Covid19 and its general disruption on life itself but what other factors are lurking which may still hamper the economy getting back on its feet. Is there another type of storm brewing? Are there emerging and future factors that will affect how quickly we get moving again?

  • People returning to work from being furlough
  • The speed at which companies integrate furlough workers to those who have had no break from Covid19
  • The performance of eco-systems within complex supply chains across many industries – If the mother ship is ready to go, are smaller organisations in the same shape or vice versa…
  • The attitude of employees returning to work – Will they be at home or in the office?
  • The general performance of certain industries and further risks of redundancies
  • The future view of jobs and how these may be required to adapt to withstand any future disruption or pandemic / local outbreaks
  • The evolving landscape impacting the contractor and the imminent changes to IR35
  • Brexit – I know, it should incur a fine for using the B word, but it is going to happen
  • A Tsunami of Talent surging into the market at one time due to issues of redundancy, contracts not being renewed, lack of new projects, lack of demand, higher levels of unemployment and slower levels of graduate recruitment

“Unemployment rate forecast to remain steady as furlough scheme continues The REC and IHS Markit have developed a model to ‘nowcast’ the UK’s headline unemployment rate. The latest nowcast model update points to an increase of just 9,000 in the Labour Force Survey measure of UK unemployment in the three months to July. This would mean that the unemployment rate would hold steady at its current level of 3.9%. Though only marginal, this would mark the first increase in unemployment since the three months to March and follows a decline of 10,000 in the three months to June. The recent changes in unemployment continue to appear relatively mild and contrast with other headline labour market data, including the Claimant Count. These differences can largely be explained by two key factors. First and foremost, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme has led to millions of people being placed on furlough as many companies were temporarily closed or ran at reduced capacity. Crucially, people placed on furlough are still classified as employed, while many are also eligible for benefits such as Universal Credit. Secondly, the ONS has recently highlighted an increase in the number of people who are economically inactive – those out of employment who are not looking for a new job – which has also helped to suppress the unemployment rate.” REC Aug2020

As you can see, there is a list of possible factors that could have an adverse effect on our recovery. This is reinforced by the ONS who have recently published their economic view in Q2 : https://bit.ly/3lfLoLQ Does this mean that we accept it and hope that things will slowly get better and back to normal? What is normal? Could this be the awakening of strong leadership and innovation? Can we use this as stimulus to create our own normal and shape our futures?

We have learnt some valuable lessons over the years when economies have been depressed : https://bit.ly/2QpmVWi One of these was to shrink the size of the government and reduce government spending : https://herit.ag/31syimx Can that work now? One thing is for sure, we got out of it then and we will do it again now.

So where do we go from here?

The REC asked the following to several leading organisations. Which job functions in your organisation, if any, do you think will see an increase or decrease of permanent members of staff and temporary agency workers in the next three months?

Overall, forecast demand for permanent staff in the short term was recorded at net: +5 this quarter. Forecast demand was higher than this average in just three occupational groups. Demand for Health & social care workers increased by eight percentage points rolling quarter-on-quarter to net: +39. At net: +26, the balance of demand for Education workers was up by 29 points, whilst demand for Technology staff rose by 12 points to net: +22. Standout occupational sectors for anticipated short-term demand for temporary agency workers included Industrial (+14 to net: +38), Technology (+10 to net: +32) and Legal & HR (+10 to net: +29). Due to limited base sizes these figures should be taken as indicative, not conclusive.

Emerging Technologies

“Where there is a crisis, there’s opportunity”. Robotic Automation and Machine learning are going to create a wealth of opportunities to those people willing to cross train, evolve their job roles and study. Accenture have also published their finding is this area : https://accntu.re/34vSINx

As spending for Al/ML projects increases in organisations, it also shifts focus away from C-level executives and into the hands of middle managers who are expected to formulate strategy, develop, and implement these initiatives with business results. This creates a worry about disappointing management, but also introduces more collaboration between business areas and IT. There is a chance for leaders to make their mark by taking calculated risks, creatively funding the finance of projects, and mobilising the project team to deliver it.

But what if AI/ML isn’t for you, what else is out there? Is IoT still on the agenda, is there an appetite for 5G, is serverless computing going to take off now we must work from home? Although not conclusive, here is some recent evidence explaining the top trends in 2020 : https://tek.io/3gu7NRX

All a bit too techy? These are some examples of how businesses can adapt; yet, there are going to be programs of work that exist now. Such as: Digital transformations, Infrastructure refreshes, Business Process re-engineering, Workflow streamlining, Working practice efficiencies and cost savings, cultural change, organisational design and transformation, health and safety updates, business continuity refreshes, training and education, mental wellbeing, LGBT and diversity and inclusion. All essential items for the modern and progressive workplace to act upon and lead on. All of this and we have not started on the green agenda…

In summary, there is light to be seen if you are in the tunnel, there is opportunity and growth available. We just must think differently about how we reach the end goal. What is certain, is that no matter how much automation or technology is involved, people will remain at the heart of it to drive it successfully through and make it work to improve lives. Keep positive and let us know your thoughts?